The Liberals under the leadership of Prime Minister, Paul Martin, have not run a good campaign so far: too much mud slingling, too much focus on health care issues. The Prime Minister could have stressed his record against the deficit or produced a new policy on government accountability, but he didn't do this.
The Conservative have the best ad of the campaign which pictures Liberals or bureaucrats throwing money into garbage cans while circus music plays in the background.
The Conservatives have an outside chance of winning a majority(155 seats in the House of Commons)but the most likely scenerio is a minority Government with a coalition between the Conservatives and The Bloc Quebecois. This would be a government that might last eight months before a non-confidence vote goes through and another election is called.
Lester Person never won a majority, but he was Prime Minister for five years in the 1960s.
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Lester Pearson's Biography